I think I'm going to give up on Gardening.........

Some may be interested in this:

edited to add this more expanded version

Canadian-led study links rainfall to human activity
Randy Boswell, CanWest News Service
Published: Monday, July 23, 2007

A landmark Canadian-led study has drawn a clear link between human activity since the early 20th century and increased rainfall across much of the Northern Hemisphere - a finding that comes in the midst of flooding crises in Britain and China, and which appears to confirm a key argument about human-induced global climate change.

"For the first time, climate scientists have clearly detected the human fingerprint on changing global precipitation patterns over the past century," the researchers said Monday in a statement, adding that their team has "determined that human-induced climate change has caused most of the observed increase in precipitation north of 50 degrees latitude, a region that includes Canada, Russia and Europe."

In an article to be published later this week in the journal Nature, the four-nation team headed by two Toronto-based climate scientists with Environment Canada compared 75 years of rainfall records from around the world with the precipitation predictions in nearly 100 computer simulations based on 14 separate global climate models.

The researchers concluded that at least 50 per cent, and as much as 85 per cent, of average rainfall increases at northern latitudes between 1925 and 1999 could be attributed to human activity.

The team's data showed that in Canada and other northern countries, average annual precipitation increased by 62 millimetres between 1925 and 1999.

In their statement, the scientists noted that "greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are produced primarily by burning fossil fuels" and that "greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have increased steadily over the past century."

And "over the past century," the team added, "climate records indicate there have been sizable shifts in precipitation patterns around the globe."

The buildup of greenhouse gases and the resulting acceleration of the world's hydrological cycles were also deemed responsible for increased wetness in a band of latitudes just south of the Equator and for significant rainfall decreases in some drought-stricken regions just north of the planet's mid-line.

"The simple take-home message is that the wet will get wetter and the dry will get drier," Francis Zwiers, director of Environment Canada's climate research division, told CanWest News Service Monday, as the study began generating worldwide media attention.

"Overall, Canada will become wetter and most of that moisture will arrive in winter," he added. But he cautioned that drought-prone areas of this country - such as the Prairies - appear unlikely to benefit from the expected increases in precipitation elsewhere in northern latitudes.

"The availability of moisture is already limited there," he said of the North American Midwest, warning that in many dry, landlocked regions "evaporation will win out even more" over precipitation in the future.

But in places with traditionally heavy rainfall, such as Britain and Canada's West Coast - where a record snowpack this year threatened B.C. with a spring flood disaster - Zwiers and his team foresee ongoing risks of severe weather events.

Zwiers, along with Environment Canada colleague Xuebin Zhang and six other researchers from the U.S., Britain and Japan, note in their paper that human influence has previously been detected in air and ocean temperature trends and other climate measures, but never in rainfall patterns.

"We estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributed significantly to observed increases in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (between 40 and 70 degrees North) drying in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and tropics, and moistening in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and deep tropics," the scientists conclude. "The observed changes, which are larger than estimated from model simulations, may have already had significant effects on ecosystems, agriculture and human health in regions that are sensitive to changes in precipitation, such as the Sahel."

Africa's Sahel region, a band of savannah and grasslands that extends nearly 4,000 kilometres across the continent south of the Sahara desert, has experienced several severe drought and famine episodes since the 1950s.

Zwiers warned that intensified precipitation patterns are likely to have a serious impact on many regions around the world, adding that countries are better prepared to deal with the "heat stress" expected from global warming than with significant increases or decreases in rainfall.

"I think there is something very fundamental about precipitation - in terms the amount of water available for agriculture, to feed our cities or even to keep our lawns green - that has a fundamental impact on the way human societies function."

In a separate Nature article, University of Oxford climate researcher Myles Allen said of the Canadian-led rainfall study:

"This is a very important paper. It identifies the fingerprint of human influence. This means that the precipitation trends they identify may be harbingers of more to come."

This message was edited Jul 24, 2007 8:22 PM

Hey Pam. This did catch my interest. The article you've quoted here was picked up off the wire by a local newspaper yesterday as well, but I was vey interested to note that it appears to have not been picked up in its entirety. There is some information in your post that never made it into our newspaper coverage.

The missing pieces start after the paragraph, "Overall, Canada will become wetter ....." and end with the paragraph, "In a separate Nature article...."

Hmmmmmm. Seems like they've stripped out most of the real meat, don't you think?

--Ginny

I find with most of the Can West stuff that you have to go to the original, to get the real info. CanWest is renowned for editing . Interesting that your local rag edited info that CanWest left in. Will have to go read this in Nature.

inanda the other G

There were a number of papers that covered the above article (each one did it's own edit) but the above carried the most information (of the ones I quickly scanned). I also noticed that many limited their coverage to the news that affected their reader's area.

Of course Nature will carry the article in it's entirety (and will be published by the end of this week).



This message was edited Jul 25, 2007 10:47 AM

Manitoba keep your T.V's and Radio's tuned to local weather stations:

AT 4:40 PM, DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST EAST OF CARMAN TO JUST WEST OF WINNIPEG AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS GRAND BEACH. THE STRONGEST STORM IN THE LINE WAS BETWEEN ELIE AND SANFORD MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KM/H TOWARDS WINNIPEG. AT 4:45 PM, VERY HEAVY RAIN AND NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN STARBUCK. THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE TORNADOES. LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWWG BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE PROVINCE MAY TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THAT AREA.

Big hailstorm in Eston area last night. At least ½ of one of our sections of land is flattened and gone, and the other ½ is not looking all that great. I guess the wind was so strong that people lost all sorts of bins and granaries.

Glenda

Oh Glenda :((((

I hope there was insurance on the crop? Good news if there was but so many can't afford it now.

Yes, there was definitely crop insurance. For some reason, we just felt this might be a hail year, and put on more insurance than we ever have. Not sure how the payout will go. Hopefully it won't take them too long to adjust it. We have never had a hail insurance claim, so hopefully we don't run into any snags!!! Insurance companies are a bit tough to deal with sometimes!

Quote from an e-mail we just received from Eston:

There was a pretty good sized hail storm last night from what I heard today, no idea really how wide it was but it did an awful lot of damage. Hail stones were golf ball sized and the wind must have been pretty bad too. It did some damage to cabins at the park and it reached north to a little north past the 6 mile road. Most crops in the area it covered are 100% There was also a lot of damage to buildings, siding ripped right off of houses on the west side as well as most windows broken too. Lots of bins rolling around with some of them ripped right out of the cement from what I heard this afternoon.

We were lucky in Calgary = had a couple of days of cooler weather with several rain storms yesterday and a bit of hail but not particularly damaging in the south part of town. A couple of the really bad storms have either passed us by or developed further east. I was worried about hail in town as this coming weekend is the open garden viewing of the winners in the garden competition.

Eston? Glenda -that brings back some memories, I grew up in Saskatoon and had an Aunt and Uncle in Eston - he owned a general store there and I always spent a few weeks out there in the summer. Long time ago!

Carol- what was your uncle's name?? My hubby grew up in Eston, and we were married there and lived there till 1990. We still have a couple of sections of land.
Lilypon also has a connection to Plato-close to Eston. Weird small world!!!
Glad you have escaped the hail so far.

Roy and Florence Fielding. There were 4 kids - Stan, Gerald, Eleanor and Audrey.


I used to visit back in the late 40's and early 50's. I cant remember if they moved into Saskatoon before I left in 1960 or if it was later.

Glenda after my DH's Dad retired from farming he became a hail adjuster......now every company is different but he felt that the farmers were really pleased with their cheques & they had no worries about early frost and the money was in the bank.

LOLOLOL Carol/Glenda this is getting spooky re the Eston area! ;) WHAT are the ODDS??????

p.s. it's COOOOOOOOOOOOOOL here (for a day or two). Kinnika I looked at our long range forecast and groaned (praying here the humidity stays lower then what it was), :S Manitoba though is in a touchy spot with the high humidity/temps and cool winds coming in. We've had a couple of raindrops but the clouds, going over us now, are really dark and black. :(

This message was edited Jul 25, 2007 10:10 PM

Hey Lilipon! I got to go through the same thing in Montana. Last Wednesday my DW and I had to sail into a beach to let her off and I sailed out into what I thought was a squall. Predicted winds of 40 Knots. Well it turned into the storm of the century. 100+ MPH winds wipped and cut at my face as it dropped the hail and threw tornadoes at my sailboat. I fought the wind for almost an hour and lost the boat in blinding wind and rolling waves. My hatch blew off and broke and the boat filled with water. I got the opportunity to swim for over 2 hours and made it to safety. We are getting into a dangerous world of dramatic weather. Keep the garden and fight the globe wanting to overcome the anticipation of success. Or better plant a couple hundred trees. LOL

Carol, yes DH remembers the store. It was called Fielding and McClean. He would have only been about 10 when it closed. He doesn't remember any of the family. There is a Paul Fielding still living there but I think that might be a different family.

Anybody else out there have links to Eston, Saskatchewan??? LOL

Glenda I think Paul Fielding is a relative on the fathers side. Mother was my Moms sister.
The kids were probably long gone when the store closed - they are in their mid 70's now. Both boys still live in Saskatoon.

All your contacts to Eston are really interesting. It is a small world.

Saw something about Facebook recently. A mom looking for the baby she gave up for adoption. She found him on Facebook. Amazing.

As for our friend Soferdig, think you must have a death wish. Watch the sky, stay tuned to marine forecast. Things change so quickly on the water.

inanda,speaking from experience.

Sofer you are preaching to the choir here re trees (early this spring I asked echoes which of the new varieties of trees/bushes would be pretty and happy here). I'm seriously thinking of having few flowering plants in the ground and more of a tapestry of bushes/trees (not only do they eat up CO2 but they provide shade........something that is becoming even more valuable, then it already was, on the prairies ;).

BTW Ginny is right Sofer (St. Christopher must be constantly watching over you). Catholic or not. ;)

Actually have 2 connections to the Eston area.....my first cousin, from Vancouver, married a girl that grew up in that town.

I'm guessing that NW Ontario is on storm watch now......is the heat/humidity rising in the southern area yet?

Nope no warnings for Ontario (?) either it flew through there or dropped back down......Quebec however has one listed:

High heat and humidity warning for:
Waskaganish, Quebec

A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL COVER THIS REGION TODAY MAKING CONDITIONS VERY UNCOMFORTABLE. DURING THIS PERIOD, PEOPLE SUFFERING FROM OF CHRONIC DISEASES (EX.: HEART AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES) COULD SEE THEIR CONDITION DETERIORATE. MOREOVER, EXPOSURE TO THESE CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE DISCOMFORT LIKE MUSCLE CRAMPS, EXHAUSTION AND HEATSTROKE. IN ORDER TO BETTER WITHSTAND THE HEAT, WE RECOMMEND THE FOLLOWING: DRINK A LOT OF WATER, REDUCE PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES, AND SEEK AIR CONDITIONED OR SHADY AREAS. IF YOU ARE CONCERNED WITH YOUR HEALTH OR IF YOU NEED MORE INFORMATION CALL YOUR CLSC INFO-SANTE HOTLINE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS SITUATED OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINED TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING 40 DEGREES WILL PERSIST TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL PUT AN END TO THIS HEAT WAVE.



This message was edited Jul 26, 2007 11:40 AM

More news from Eston. I guess the storm cut quite a wide swath, but was picky where it dumped the golf ball size hail. There was a lot of damage at the Riverside Regional Park. Trees were uprooted, many broken windows and siding damage on the west sides. Where we still have out little old house and all the large grain bins hardly got touched. A few shingles off one building and that's about it. I guess the poer was off for 24 hours in a lot of the rural area. I guess we'll probably hear more about it over the next few days.
Lilypon: what was your cousin's wifes maiden name???

We've had brief local showers off and on over the past two days but nothing much really here in southern Ontario. We could sure use a day or two of steady rain here.

--Ginny

I am buying property up in SE Alaska or BC coast. That way when the global warming continues to cook the west I will have an escape place in the rain to grow my plants. Now how high does the property need to be to anticipate ocean rising? So many decisions.

LOL Soferdig: You think like my DH. WE are fairly close to the ocean, but uphill quite a ways. Hubby is thinking that we will have oceanfront property when the big quake hits!!!

Glenda Randy and Shirley got married ~ 30/5 years ago (and divorced ~ 7 years ago). We are all scratching our heads trying to remember her maiden name. Her father was a custodian at one (or the) school in Eston (from what we can remember). Some of her family farmed too since Randy often helped them at harvest time. Her family is Catholic / we aren't, Randy and his grooms wore their R.C.M.P. serges at the wedding (don't know if any of this will help you or not). Truthfully I'm close to phoning Betts (Plato) to help me out here. :S



This message was edited Jul 26, 2007 8:08 PM

They moved to Ontario for a number of years, then Calgary, then back down East again and now he's back in Vancouver/she's in Calgary.


edited to say it sounds like a pretty powerful plow wind (down draft) went through that park.

This message was edited Jul 26, 2007 7:07 PM

Pam. DH thinks it was either Ries(pronounced reese), or Croshaw. If it was Ries, her father Gus was custodian at the elementary school for a long time. He was there when my kids were in their early years, and they just loved him.

I think its Ries (sounds right to me and I know her last name didn't have many letters in it).

Again, such a small world!!! We really get off on some strange tangents here, don't we????

This message was edited Jul 26, 2007 5:34 PM

LOLOL ah it makes it all that more fun (never know what you are going to learn here ;). Besides what else am I going to talk about???? The gorgeous flowers on my pumpkins?????? ;)

Well, I guess that having flowers on your pumpkins is probably exciting considering the weather and storms you have been having!!!!

Good point! :D I also have a TROMBONCINO that is starting to fruit. (Also known as "Tromba D' Albenga". This is actually a Zucchetta related to Zucchini and tasting much the same. An Italian Heirloom Zucchini with enormous fruits up to 3 feet long. Excellant choice as not bothered by infamous squash bugs and vine borers. Firm texture and fine taste. Best picked when young for the finest flavor, will bleach when full grown into a more gourd -like color for decorations as well!)

A new zucchini type plant for me to figure out how I'm going to use up. ;)

Sorry Ginny I think a number of us are going to have to work on bettering our rain dancing skills.

:-)

Wash and wax the car, schedule a back yard event with lots of people, invite people over for a bar-be-cue, irrigate the garden heavily, don't plant any new plants for a year. All this is the perfect rain dance.

LOL You are sooooo right Sofer!

LOL Well I don't think my yard will survive another group onslaught so I think I'll try the heavy watering and polishing my hail pocked (now totalled) car (this would be poor old Black Betty who was sitting out front when the hail hit our neighbourhood).

We plate her for the summer so DS can get to work.



This message was edited Jul 27, 2007 2:50 PM

MooseJaw really hit the news in the prairie section of G&M today. First your mineral spa, sounds groovy, next prairie RU maybe????? SK now has Wifi in all 4 major cities including MJaw. Wow, don't think there is any other province, maybe not even any US state that is as advanced as that.

The best cafe & coffee roaster in Whitehorse has wifi for customers. They have to limit time to 3hrs. pp per visit.

inanda

You got me searching Ginny (found three articles) and I don't think we will have to worry about snow here for awhile:


WEATHER: WHAT'S ODD AND WHAT'S NOT

Print Edition 28/07/07 Page A2

Hottest, coldest, wettest. The inhabitants of Moose Jaw will be in the hottest location in Canada today, with a forecast high of 36 degrees. Clyde, Nunavut, will be the coldest place in the country at two degrees.

************************************************


This message was edited Jul 29, 2007 12:21 AM

BTW I should mention that the farmers on the prairies are really worried about their crops ripening too fast (ie: empty shells).

In the Northern Hemisphere, they are talking about a food shortage:


Southern Europe scorched as rain batters north
Continent divided by two differing summer climates
· Heat and floods both spell disaster for farmers

John Vidal and Kate Connolly
Saturday July 28, 2007
The Guardian

Huge swaths of central and southern Europe were this week engulfed in record temperatures, as other areas recorded their heaviest summer rainfalls and farmers across the continent warned of impending food shortages and price rises.

This summer Europe has been split by climate. Above a line roughly running from the Pyrenees to Bulgaria, three humid months have been punctuated by violent storms and enormous cloudbursts; but to the south there has been a succession of heatwaves, each more intense than the last.

Tens of thousands of acres of forest are believed to have been destroyed by fire. In Hungary 500 people died from heatstroke and related problems, while in Romania 19,000 were hospitalized as temperatures reached 41C.

With wildfires raging from Italy to Albania and Bosnia to Romania, firefighters - aided by Russian water bomber planes - and soldiers have fought to bring them under control. Workers in several countries were ordered by government decree to down their tools. In Macedonia pregnant women were sent home on paid leave until further notice.

Meanwhile farmers across northern Europe are reporting difficulties getting crops such as broccoli, cabbages, lettuces, potatoes and sweetcorn out of fields.

This week they appealed to the EU to be allowed to grow food on land that has been taken out of production for environmental reasons. "It's been a disaster for livestock farmers who will not have winter feed for their animals and there has been a catastrophic loss of peas and some other vegetables. You can't even get combine harvesters into fields", said Paul Temple, NFU vice-president. "Some farmers have lost everything. Some crops are ruined. This weather is bound to have an effect on food inflation, although it's too early yet to say how severe that will be."

More than 60 days of almost non-stop rain followed by high humidity has devastated grape growers in France and Germany, according to the wine website decanter.com. A plague of mildew and rot has almost completely destroyed the Bordeaux harvest, and hailstorms and torrential rains have battered vineyards in Alsace and Burgundy. Problems have also been reported in Champagne, Beaujolais, the Loire and the Rhône valley.

In Bulgaria, which experienced its hottest temperatures in 200 years, yields of maize were 40% below average, while in Romania wheat yields were down a fifth.

In Poland apple harvests were reportedly down by half, and in Hungary a large part of the blueberry stock had perished according to local reports.

"There are severe shortages of fruit and veg building in northern France, UK, Belgium and Germany," said Simon Michel-Berger of Copa-Cogeca, the leading European farmers' organisation.

"Not only are crops being lost, but there is a risk that the quality will be low. Prices for all food and vegetable crops are going to increase significantly. In England there have been substantial losses."

A spokesman for the Met Office in London said: "Europe is completely split. It seems that the north Atlantic jet stream has shifted south bringing wet weather, and as a direct result hot air is being drawn up from the south in eastern Europe.

"They are having extremely hot weather and we are having very wet weather. This has been going on now for several months. Sometimes it is very difficult to get the pattern to change. It just gets stuck.

"Possibly a hurricane in the Atlantic will help redistribute the energy. That might cause a dramatic change for everyone."