growth trends

(I started to send this to just Trish and Terry, but I thought the rest of the membership might be interested).

These numbers are interesting. Almost since inception (really, since January, 2001) Dave's Garden has grown by almost exactly 3.66% each week. It's odd, but that number has never changed much.

I wrote a program to go back in time and run that number against our membership number from January 1st, 2001. Sure enough, the program figures that we would have 49,729 members today, which is pretty close to reality.

So, I know I can trust my algorithm.

If the next year maintains the same growth as the past 2 years, here is what DG will look like, in terms of members:

January 8, 2001: 570
January 15, 2001: 590
January 22, 2001: 611
January 29, 2001: 633
February 5, 2001: 656
February 12, 2001: 680
February 19, 2001: 704
February 26, 2001: 729
March 5, 2001: 755
March 12, 2001: 782
March 19, 2001: 810
March 26, 2001: 839
April 2, 2001: 869
April 9, 2001: 900
April 16, 2001: 932
April 23, 2001: 966
April 30, 2001: 1,001
May 7, 2001: 1,037
May 14, 2001: 1,074
May 21, 2001: 1,113
May 28, 2001: 1,153
June 4, 2001: 1,195
June 11, 2001: 1,238
June 18, 2001: 1,283
June 25, 2001: 1,329
July 2, 2001: 1,377
July 9, 2001: 1,427
July 16, 2001: 1,479
July 23, 2001: 1,533
July 30, 2001: 1,589
August 6, 2001: 1,647
August 13, 2001: 1,707
August 20, 2001: 1,769
August 27, 2001: 1,833
September 3, 2001: 1,900
September 10, 2001: 1,969
September 17, 2001: 2,041
September 24, 2001: 2,115
October 1, 2001: 2,192
October 8, 2001: 2,272
October 15, 2001: 2,355
October 22, 2001: 2,441
October 29, 2001: 2,530
November 5, 2001: 2,622
November 12, 2001: 2,717
November 19, 2001: 2,816
November 26, 2001: 2,919
December 3, 2001: 3,025
December 10, 2001: 3,135
December 17, 2001: 3,249
December 24, 2001: 3,367
December 31, 2001: 3,490
January 7, 2002: 3,617
January 14, 2002: 3,749
January 21, 2002: 3,886
January 28, 2002: 4,028
February 4, 2002: 4,175
February 11, 2002: 4,327
February 18, 2002: 4,485
February 25, 2002: 4,649
March 4, 2002: 4,819
March 11, 2002: 4,995
March 18, 2002: 5,177
March 25, 2002: 5,366
April 1, 2002: 5,562
April 8, 2002: 5,765
April 15, 2002: 5,975
April 22, 2002: 6,193
April 29, 2002: 6,419
May 6, 2002: 6,653
May 13, 2002: 6,896
May 20, 2002: 7,148
May 27, 2002: 7,409
June 3, 2002: 7,680
June 10, 2002: 7,961
June 17, 2002: 8,252
June 24, 2002: 8,554
July 1, 2002: 8,867
July 8, 2002: 9,191
July 15, 2002: 9,527
July 22, 2002: 9,875
July 29, 2002: 10,236
August 5, 2002: 10,610
August 12, 2002: 10,998
August 19, 2002: 11,400
August 26, 2002: 11,817
September 2, 2002: 12,249
September 9, 2002: 12,697
September 16, 2002: 13,161
September 23, 2002: 13,642
September 30, 2002: 14,141
October 7, 2002: 14,658
October 14, 2002: 15,194
October 21, 2002: 15,750
October 28, 2002: 16,326
November 4, 2002: 16,923
November 11, 2002: 17,542
November 18, 2002: 18,184
November 25, 2002: 18,849
December 2, 2002: 19,538
December 9, 2002: 20,253
December 16, 2002: 20,994
December 23, 2002: 21,762
December 30, 2002: 22,558
January 6, 2003: 23,383
January 13, 2003: 24,238
January 20, 2003: 25,125
January 27, 2003: 26,044
February 3, 2003: 26,997
February 10, 2003: 27,985
February 17, 2003: 29,009
February 24, 2003: 30,070
March 3, 2003: 31,170
March 10, 2003: 32,310
March 17, 2003: 33,492
March 24, 2003: 34,717
March 31, 2003: 35,987
April 7, 2003: 37,304
April 14, 2003: 38,669
April 21, 2003: 40,084
April 28, 2003: 41,551
May 5, 2003: 43,071
May 12, 2003: 44,647
May 19, 2003: 46,281
May 26, 2003: 47,974
June 2, 2003: 49,729
June 9, 2003: 51,549
June 16, 2003: 53,435
June 23, 2003: 55,390
June 30, 2003: 57,417
July 7, 2003: 59,518
July 14, 2003: 61,696
July 21, 2003: 63,954
July 28, 2003: 66,294
August 4, 2003: 68,720
August 11, 2003: 71,235
August 18, 2003: 73,842
August 25, 2003: 76,544
September 1, 2003: 79,345
September 8, 2003: 82,249
September 15, 2003: 85,259
September 22, 2003: 88,379
September 29, 2003: 91,613
October 6, 2003: 94,966
October 13, 2003: 98,441
October 20, 2003: 102,043
October 27, 2003: 105,777
November 3, 2003: 109,648
November 10, 2003: 113,661
November 17, 2003: 117,820
November 24, 2003: 122,132
December 1, 2003: 126,602
December 8, 2003: 131,235
December 15, 2003: 136,038
December 22, 2003: 141,016
December 29, 2003: 146,177
January 5, 2004: 151,527
January 12, 2004: 157,072
January 19, 2004: 162,820
January 26, 2004: 168,779
February 2, 2004: 174,956
February 9, 2004: 181,359
February 16, 2004: 187,996
February 23, 2004: 194,876
March 1, 2004: 202,008
March 8, 2004: 209,401
March 15, 2004: 217,065
March 22, 2004: 225,009
March 29, 2004: 233,244
April 5, 2004: 241,780
April 12, 2004: 250,629
April 19, 2004: 259,802
April 26, 2004: 269,310
May 3, 2004: 279,166
May 10, 2004: 289,383
May 17, 2004: 299,974
May 24, 2004: 310,953
May 31, 2004: 322,333
June 7, 2004: 334,130

So, will we see 100,000 members in mid October of this year, and 200,000 in late February of next year? I don't know, at some point we will hit critical mass and will have all the gardening market on the internet. I don't know what that number will be, however.

My last online community (linuxtoday.com) stopped growth at 400,000 members. I suspect there is also a ceiling for the gardening industry, but I think we're a ways off from hitting it.

Figuring that almost exactly 2% of our members become subscribers, at 300,000 members we would have around 6,000 subscribers (revenues of $90,000 - we'd need it to support that many people). At that point, I would start getting serious about wanting to try to get a larger percent of the members to subscribe.

Dave

Good gracious, that's some going Dave and I can't imagine how much work this would entail for the DG staff when you reach those future numbers. Is it OK to ask how many subscribers are ongoing as of now?

I can't believe there were less than 1200 members when I joined, it seemed so big back then. Dave, I hope that this has blessed you and your family as much as it has us.

I sure hope you did not have to type all of that, Dave......LOL!

Amazing info!

WOW! Only 1300 when I joined! And I thought I was still a newbie! LOL....guess not!

Woah, that's amazing - wow. I've noticed many people participating in the voting booth threads who are not subscribers. If some would take a moment to write those folks a note and encourage them to subscribe (especially those who have asked a plant question in a post), who knows how many might decide to join up?

Juggernaut. It's the only word that fits.....and it doesn't hurt that Dave is so fond of it.

Just goes to show that if a quality product is offered,people will find you!

Dave, I have often entertained the idea of trying to do this projection, but didn't have the patience. Glad you did, but it sure makes it look overwhelming.

Isn't it interesting to note that even crashing servers and other web mishaps haven't seriously slowed this trend?

Dave ~~~

While DG's membership number history and projections are pretty~near straight~line, have paid subscriber numbers actually also been in a straight~line relationship with them?

Does the summed infrastructure, bandwidth and administrative cost of supporting absolute numbers of members increase in a straight line or does in go up in incremental steps and then plateau out at some point?

Currently, the percentage of absolute members who are also paying subscribers is so low that I think it would be a relatively simple matter to double the current number ~~~ with the appropriate and well~thought~out carrot and stick approach.

This sort of revenue growth in advance of the budgetary crows coming home to roost (so to speak), is in the long run easier to achieve than after~the~fact financial back~and~fill (please trust me on this last bit; I've had some long, sleepless, uncomfortable nights in my career trying to solve the painful problems brought on by un~planned~for success).

Adam.

wow is about all I can say......
I was member 444, and boy have we grown....

A hunert thousand before the end of the year......well, ya can't get the tootpaste back in the tube now!!

"eyes"

lol eyes...that is funny!!!