The Weathernetwork has finally released their fall forecast

General Outlook

Near to below normal precipitation is expected to dominate the country for September, October and November following a summer which saw records broken for precipitation across parts of Central and Eastern Canada. The active weather gave Canadians many opportunities to photograph active or unusual weather. Over 52,000 photos and videos were submitted by viewers online at theweathernetwork.com during June, an increase of 116% over the previous June.

“The water temperature in the tropical Pacific has an impact on global weather patterns,” said Chris Scott, Forecast Operations Manager with The Weather Network. La Nina which is defined by cooler water in the east-central Pacific Ocean and El Nino characterized by warmer water, are common weather phenomena in the region however this year, the water temperature was relatively normal. “Normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific make it more difficult to predict seasonal global weather patterns and how the jet stream will direct storms. This summer, we got stuck in a jet stream pattern over Ontario and Quebec that resulted in unusually stormy weather.”

Fall Precipitation Outlook

The storm track also known as the polar jet stream will sink across British Columbia and then rise across the Northern Prairie provinces and into Northeastern Canada. This jet stream pattern will allow dry and relatively warm air to spread across most regions of the country resulting in near normal to below normal precipitation. The exception may be across parts of Quebec where near to above normal precipitation is expected.

Fall Temperature Outlook

Near normal to above normal temperatures for the fall are expected for the majority of the country. The only area with below normal temperatures forecasted is Southwestern British Columbia.

Hurricane Season

An active hurricane season is expected in the North Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Named storms are expected to number 14-18, with 7-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes forecasted. A storm reaches hurricane strength when sustained winds reach 119 km/hr. Warmer Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures, the lingering effect of the phenomenon known as La Nina and reduced upper wind shear will favour an active Atlantic hurricane season.

Provincial Outlook Region Outlook

British Columbia Most regions of British Columbia can expect near normal temperatures for the fall with the exception of Southwestern regions which look to trend below normal. Northern British Columbia will experience below normal precipitation.

Prairie Provinces The temperature outlook for Manitoba, Northern Saskatchewan and Alberta is for above normal temperatures. Northwest and southeast regions will be dominated by below normal precipitation.

Ontario & Québec The majority of residents in Ontario will experience near normal temperatures and precipitation. Residents in Southwestern Ontario should expect above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the period. An area of above normal precipitation is expected through Central and Southern Quebec.

Atlantic Canada Above normal temperatures will dominate Northern Labrador and the Maritime provinces. Western Labrador is expected to receive above normal precipitation.

Northern Canada Near normal temperatures will dominate the region with the exception of south-central regions where above normal temperatures will prevail. Below normal precipitation is expected in Southern Yukon and Northwest Territories.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather_outlooks/2008_fall

Provincial Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Region Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook

British Columbia Near normal for all but the South Coast and southern Interior BC which will be slightly cooler than normal. Below normal across the northern third of the province. Near normal elsewhere.

Alberta Above normal across the far north. Near normal for the rest of the province. Below normal across the north and central regions of the province including the city of Edmonton. Near normal for the rest of the province, including Calgary.

Saskatchewan Above normal to the north. Near normal for central and southern areas of the province. Below normal for most regions of the province. Near normal in some central areas including the city of Prince Albert.

Manitoba Above normal across the province with the exception of the southwest which will be near normal. Near normal across the north. Below normal for the rest of the province.

Ontario Above normal for northwest regions near the Manitoba and Minnesota border. Above normal for Southwestern Ontario including the city of Toronto. Near normal elsewhere. Near normal for most parts of the province. Below normal for the far southwest including Windsor. Above normal for the lower Ottawa Valley.

Québec Above normal for Northern Quebec. Near normal elsewhere. Near normal across the far north and east. Above normal for southern and central parts of the province, including Montreal.

Atlantic Canada Slightly above normal for Northern Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. Near normal elsewhere. Slightly above normal across southwest Labrador. Near normal for the rest of the region.

Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut Near normal across Yukon and Northern Nunavut. Above normal for southern areas of Northwest Territories and Eastern Nunavut including Iqaluit. Below normal for southern Yukon and the southern Northwest Territories including Yellowknife. Near normal elsewhere.

I'll believe "normal" when I see it. :-)

LOLOL So will I Ann.......but do we really remember what normal was/is?

I'm liking it. I have many, many more dahlias to bloom so I'm good with warm. Just wish we were getting more sun now but I guess you can't have everything sigh.

Dahlianut please don't wish for it for too long (mid October is fine however ;)

Looking at our map above and where we are supposed to be warmer than normal here's the newest report on Climate Change just released from NOAA: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080904_pollution.html

Well .. the temperature part for NW Ont is BANG on .. it was 30C here in Thunder Bay today with the humidex, and it's cooling off very nicely now :-)

Precip seems to be our ONE elusive thing .. it comes towards us .. and then goes either north or south of us !!

Thanks for the FORECAST Lilypond :-) I LOVE weather .. hmmmmmmmm .. I MUST be a Canadian LoL

~M~

Hmmm, I like nice weather. :D We had 30c today as well, but without the Humidex, but the forecast is for cooler temps to begin tomorrow. Have to say, that I am ready for it. We have same problem with precipitation here as well. When the forecast is for showers, it just never seem to develop, usually happening to the North of us instead. There are showers in our forecast for Sunday, so we shall see if really happens. Would be nice though.