Hardiness Changes?

I had heard about "changes" in the hardiness charts, but this was the first time I'd seen it.

http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm

Not huge changes, but some fairly distinct movement of zones regardless. Makes you wonder what 2020 will look like.

Hmmm. "Zone creep". :)

Sigh .. looks like I'll never get peony's to grow here ;-(.

X

I don't think this "zone creep" is going to be very helpful. My area has changed from 7b to 8a according to Arbor Day, but most references still go with the USDA standard of 7b. The problem with the recent climate changes is that we seem to lose out on the benefit of extended cold periods during the winter (e.g. enough chill for plants like tulips and peonies, and cold enough to kill the bugs). But at the same time we'll still get a few really cold nights that will kill or damage subtropicals that would otherwise do well. The summers seem to be getting hotter and drier too.

I gave up on tulips a long time ago. :( I'm in 8a or 8b depending on which map you look at.
You're right tho, Tom. We don't get enough cold but at the same time, we're not freeze-free. Still, I love my long growing season.
Deb

Maybe it's me, but this past winter sure had it's cold days - even if just a few, they were worse than I can remember in recent history. And that late Easter freeze was horrible. Sometimes I wish we lived in a no-freeze area, but then I'd be disappointed when we didn't get our average 1 snow day a year.

I've posted on this phenomena before, keonikale---glad to see some documentation on it! In my experience, zones are definitely changing. Even in the short 20 years I've lived here! We're kind of entering a "no-win" era where our summers are too hot for zone 7-8 plants, but those crazy freeze days we get in the winter while short in time, are real killers to zone 9 and 10 plants. My Edgeworthia is still trying to recover from that bizarre Easter freeze this year! My wife swore it was dead, and wanted it dug up and pitched. I refused, because the limbs were still supple, so I knew it was still alive. It is just now starting to show signs of leafing out! I mean, it's JUNE! The thing was always fully leafed by now! Edgeworthia wasn't the only one set back by that late freeze---Allamanda, Barleria, Brugmansia, Tacoma, Clerodenron---all got screwed up by that strange frost. Expect that's what we'll be dealing with for the next 20 years, until we officially become "Zone 9A"...and even then, there'll be disastrous years... Mother Nature is slow to change, but change she does...

I'm not totally convinced on the weather changing. Weather has always gone in cycles that are years long or decades. I remember in the 70's that we were going into an ice age at one point. The only thing I've notice over the last few years is we're not getting the normal amount of rain for this area but I remember back in the late 90's when it rain here every day. We had a storm, not a hurricane that dropped 19 inches of rain in something like 24 hrs. That whole year was water everywhere and boy did the frogs love it. Night time was deafening outside.

I am wondering about the hole in the ozone. If that let's in more UV's than normal wouldn't it make sense that would make the planet heat up a little? So when that hole closes (which no one seems to have an idea when) wouldn't that cool off the planet a little? More UV rays could explain a few things going on in the ocean too. Who knows?

Here's what the EPA has about climate change-tons of links and information from here.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html

The EPA can certainly explain all this better than I can, and it's been a while since I sat through all the college courses.

But in general, if you look at the worldwide temperatures over the last 100 years (or since official measurements began) the world is definitely warming. NOAA releases several season summaries per year and the trends are really quite scary. Most of us don't think 1 degree F is a big deal, but 1 degree F can reduce crop yield in certain countries by 1/3rd. 1 degree can cause melting of ice caps that not only can raise sea level but can cause a huge influx of fresh water to rush into the oceans.

From what I remember studying, that influx of water is the biggest problem. The ocean currents require the dense salty water at certain points to sink. In the Atlantic, this is near Iceland. These currents are what pull the warm air out of the gulf and keep Europe "warm." The same currents cause California's water to feel chilly as the currents bring water down from the Alaska area. In any event, in the Atlantic the influx of fresh water causes the "sinkage" to stop. Fresh water is less dense and this essentially cuts off the circulation. The ensuing climate change, at least in the past (which does occur in natural cycles) have been dramatic. An over exaggerated version of this was seen in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow."

There is a lot of debate about climate change, the causes of it, and whether or not people are to blame for a part of it. Politics and money usually make the whole debate very messy. Personally, I look at the natural earth cycles we've been able to determine occurred (through Paleoclimatology proxies like Ice cores, Ocean & Lake Sediments, tree rings, fossil pollen, human diaries, coral, etc, etc) and then I consider the effect of our burning of fossil fuels buried in the earth. While I'll never argue the earth has both natural cycles (causes by our axis rotation, proximity to the sun, etc) or freak events (sun radiation, volcanoes, etc) I do honestly believe our pumping of tons and tons of CO2 into the atmosphere is a *partial* cause for the warming of our planet. What worries me the most is that today we're likely only seeing the results of 50-100 years ago burning. It can take a while for the changes to go into effect. So even if we stopped burning ALL fossil fuels today, it would be as late as 2107 or later before we really saw the effects. And the most dramatic effects take place at the poles, where the ozone holes are, where hurricanes distribute their heat, etc. The poles will see the most dangerous changes first, and ultimately it'll trickle down to the rest of us; especially as the ice sheets melt.

I figure better safe than sorry. Science has its flaws sure, but most scientists I've known aren't in it for money, politics, or to scare people for the heck of it.

Anyway, just something to think about.

Edit: Oh, and I meant to mention it. But lots of folks like to say Volcanoes are a big reason for "warming" of the planet. This actually is not true. Volcanoes that erupt very violently, like Mount Pinatubo in 1991, actually blast so much dust into the upper atmosphere that it actually blocks the sun's radiation. This actually causes a cooling phenomenon, not a warming one.

There is also talk about 'destroying' hurricanes before they hit land. Most folks don't realize the danger of this. Hurricanes are natures way of moving A LOT of heat/energy from the center of our planet (the tropics/equator) to the poles. It's mother natures way of redistributing heat and energy. If you destroy that... you're really tipping the scale in a dangerous manner.

This message was edited Jun 8, 2007 9:31 AM

keonikale, couldn't have said things better and didn't want to leapfrog onto a soapbox, hence why I sent the link. My generation and my daughter's (and hers and so on) will clearly be seeing the effects over time, and in my short lifetime, I've been amazed at the change.

I agree with the hurricane's being "destroyed" is a bad idea and I live on the coast. We also get many inches of rain from the big summer storms without those we would have a drought every summer changing the landscape in a bad way. On a big scale who knows what terrible thing would happen.

Bumping this back up since I found an update. Apparently a more reliable 30 year map is on its way from Oregon State University. The Arbor day map only used 15 years of data and is widely rumored to be inaccurate at times. 15 years is certainly not long enough to determine the "average" temperature for an area.

I had also heard that this new map will be in GIS form, so you can zoom in and see the local affects of lakes, rivers, topography, etc on zones. For example, just north of me against the south part of the lake, it's significantly warmer than where I live. I was also shocked how much colder we got here outside of Lexington than my parents did in Irmo.

Here's the article. Hopefully by the end of this year or early next they'll release the map in phase 3 (to the public):
http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/projects/projects.htm?ACCN_NO=411584&showpars=true&fy=2007

I think this whole "climate change" thing has been blown way out of reasonable proportion for political manipulation purposes. Looked at reasonably, of course mankind IS contributing in some small way to this change. Every time every one of us (and most other life forms on earth) breathes in Oxygen and exhales Carbon Dioxide we're contributing to the equation. Mother Nature understands this equation, and compensates for it. Has through the eons, and will continue to do so. Mankind is not in control of the big picture, in spite of what the Republicans and Democrats preach to us. Endlessly. Most recent data from one of the "irrefutable" scientific communities I've seen has us entering a "cold weather" phase that will peak around 2040-2060. Their data looked good, and I have no reason to dispute it. Just another of the endless short-term variations that occur naturally. Whether we're here or not. So where we're now 9a, we'll slip back to 8b or maybe even 8a in 2060.
The real problem is that people don't understand "true significant change". Significant changes occur over thousands of years, and are compensated for naturally. They're also uncontrollable by man. So worrying about your kids, or your kids' kids, or your kids', kids' kids is a waste of perfectly good emotion. Gets people fired up politically, though!

Stono, I won't give you too hard of a time because I've read enough of what you've said about this in the past that I know you aren't advocating that we be environmentally irresponsible or that every individual is entitled to drive a Yukon to carry their purse around town. I will say that there's been way more focus on short term problems in politics and I have heard very little about climate change since someone (ahem...) acknowledged that even polar bears are sweatin to death due to changes.

But gaw-lee! I thought my man was where I was wasting all my perfectly good emotions, not worrying about my kid! lol

High oil prices will move people towards less fossil fuel, reverse are true too. Dirt cheap gas and people will buy huge vehicles or very fast vehicles that burn a lot of gas. High gas prices and people move to smaller slower cars and trucks. Same with houses. I've looked into solar power and it just isn't ready yet. If my electric bill goes up 50%, it will pay for it's self in a reasonable amount of time.

Comes to the least pain. People always will do what feels good and avoid pain. LOL. Until it causes pain people don't think of conserving energy. It is also naive to think any country can just stop using fossil fuels.

I used to worry about climate changes until I found out what we do now will not help for 120 years. GRRRRR No one knows for sure what will happen I feel . I do try to be green . Wish I had a wind turbine especially today as the water is being blown inland and even the schools here on the crystal coast are closing due to flooding from wind-not from too much rain.

Lavina

Maybe it's me and maybe I'm naive, but I seriously think a "green revolution" in power would produce countless jobs in this country and at least help with our current financial situation. We're spending WAY too much money on black gold, especially abroad. If we put that same money into renewable and truly American energy we could really do a lot of good - kill two birds with one stone. 120 years is a long time - no doubt, but in the general scheme of things - think what the world would be like today if they'd changed their methods 120 years ago. I hope this is one challenge my generation is up to tackling in the coming years.